Impacts of future climate change on soil frost in the midwestern United States
نویسندگان
چکیده
[1] Historical observations indicate a shift toward shorter winters and increased average air temperatures in the midwestern United States. Furthermore, a rise in soil temperatures is likely to be enhanced under projections of increased air temperature; however, reduced snow cover during winter may lead to colder soil temperatures in the future. Cumulatively, these changes will affect cold season processes in the region. Therefore the impact of such changes on cold season processes were analyzed under two climate models (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory version CM2.1.1 (GFDL) and UK Met Office Hadley Center Climate Model, version 3.1 (HadCM3)) and three scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) by implementing the variable infiltration capacity land surface model from 1977 to 2099. Ensemble averages of the two models for the three scenarios indicated that both air temperature and precipitation would increase in the cold season (December–May), with the greatest increases projected under the A2 scenario by late in the 21st century (2070–2099). Also during this period, the median number of days when air temperature was below 0°C reduced in comparison to the base period (1977–2006) by 25, 35, and 38 days for the B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios, respectively. The number of freeze‐thaw cycles increased in the south‐central Wisconsin and the northern regions of Michigan by up to 3 cycles, while the duration of soil frost decreased by between 2 weeks and nearly 2 months during 2070–2099 with respect to the base period.
منابع مشابه
Impacts of Historic Climate Variability on Seasonal Soil Frost in the Midwestern United States
The present study examines the effects of historic climate variability on cold-season processes, including soil temperature, frost depth, and the number of frost days and freeze–thaw cycles. Considering the importance of spatial and temporal variability in cold-season processes, the study was conducted in the midwestern United States using both observations and model simulations. Model simulati...
متن کاملPotential impacts of climate change on soil erosion vulnerability across the conterminous United States
Rainfall runoff erosivity (R) is one key climate factor that controls water erosion. Quantifying the effects of climate change–induced erosivity change is important for identifying critical regions prone to soil erosion under a changing environment. In this study we first evaluate the changes of R from 1970 to 2090 across the United States under nine climate conditions predicted by three genera...
متن کاملمدلسازی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر انتشار دیاکسیدکربن خاک در مراتع خشک (جنوب ایران)
Introduction: Carbon stored in soils particularly in arid rangelands soils is the most significant carbon sink in terrestrial ecosystems. In arid rangelands, Soils have special places in both carbon sequestration and mitigate global warming. Therefore, any small change in the soil organic carbon (SOC) leads to a significant impact on the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Studies have shown t...
متن کاملInvestigating the Changes in the Starting and the Ending of Effective Colds and Freezing in Agriculture under Climate Change Conditions in North - west of Iran
Extended Abstract Cold and frost is one of the most important climatic parameters in the agricultural climate, and the damage caused by them reduces the possibility of producing many agricultural and horticultural products in vulnerable areas. Cold and frost is one of the climatic hazards that annually causes damage to various activities. The agricultural sector is the most important part of...
متن کامل